A Look Back: Houston Real Estate, Spring 2022

I received my Texas real estate license in March 2022, which put me on the floor of what was, at that moment, one of the most aggressive seller’s markets Houston had seen in a generation. The context matters: mortgage rates had spent most of 2020 and 2021 at or below 3%, the pandemic had compressed two or three years of lifestyle re-evaluation into a single eighteen-month window, and Houston’s energy sector was recovering on the strength of commodity prices pushed higher by events in Eastern Europe. Buyers were buying. Sellers were winning. And I was learning to navigate a market that was not going to be the permanent baseline.

Looking back at Spring 2022 from the vantage of a season later, what stands out is how narrow the window actually was. Rates had already started moving by the time most sellers fully understood the market they were in. The Federal Reserve began its hiking cycle in March 2022 — the same month I got my license — and by May, 30-year fixed rates had climbed from the low 3s to the mid-5s. The buyers who had been shopping for three months suddenly found their purchasing power meaningfully reduced. But the market hadn’t caught up yet, and Spring 2022 still looked like a seller’s market on the surface even as the underpinnings were beginning to shift.

Inner Loop and Near-Loop Neighborhoods

In Spring 2022, the inner loop was running hot. Montrose, the Heights, Midtown, and the Museum District were seeing multiple-offer situations as a matter of course, with waived inspection contingencies and over-list closes that would have seemed extraordinary two years earlier. The buyer pool was driven partly by genuine Houston population growth and partly by out-of-state relocators — particularly from California and the Northeast — who saw Houston’s relative affordability as a significant value even at prices that were elevated by Houston’s own historical standards. Days on market in desirable inner-loop locations were often in the single digits.

The price ceiling in the inner loop was being tested. Homes that would have been priced at $550,000 in 2020 were listing at $650,000 and receiving offers at $680,000. Sellers who had owned for five or more years were realizing equity gains that were, for this market, genuinely unusual. The challenge was the replacement cost: if you sold a Heights bungalow for a significant gain, what you bought next was also at a premium, and the rate environment was beginning to add carrying cost on top of elevated purchase prices.

Cypress / Bridgeland / Northwest Corridor

The northwest suburban market in Spring 2022 was in the middle of a master-planned community expansion that was absorbing enormous buyer demand. Bridgeland was drawing buyers from the inner loop who wanted more space, families relocating from other states who were attracted by Cy-Fair ISD’s reputation, and local move-up buyers who had equity from their previous homes to deploy. The builder lots that had inventory were selling quickly and the resale market alongside them was competitive.

Cy-Fair ISD was a primary driver of demand in this corridor specifically, and it showed in the pricing premium that addresses zoned to the better-regarded campuses commanded over otherwise comparable homes in adjacent districts. What I noticed early in my career was that buyers who understood the district boundaries were making more strategic decisions than those who were just searching broadly in “Cypress.” The school zone line could affect value by $30,000 to $50,000 on otherwise similar properties.

Katy / Fort Bend / Southwest

Katy and the Fort Bend County markets were similarly competitive, with Katy ISD serving the same function as Cy-Fair on the northwest side — a quality signal that anchored buyer demand and price floors. The surge of California relocators in particular was visible in Katy and Sugar Land, where buyers coming from markets with higher price points found the value proposition compelling even at elevated Houston prices. Multiple offers and quick closes were common throughout Cinco Ranch, Grand Lakes, and the established Katy communities.

The Woodlands and North Houston

The Woodlands in Spring 2022 was benefiting from the same forces affecting the rest of the market but with a specific employment anchor: the corporate relocations that had been coming to the north Houston corridor for years were continuing, and the remote work flexibility that the pandemic had introduced meant some buyers who previously needed to be near the Energy Corridor or downtown were finding The Woodlands more accessible. The market was competitive and prices were elevated, though The Woodlands’ relative affordability compared to comparable suburban markets in other major metros kept demand deep.

What Spring 2022 Established

Looking back, Spring 2022 established a pricing baseline that the market would spend the next two years processing. Sellers who closed in this window captured the top of a cycle that was closer to its end than most participants recognized. Buyers who bought in Spring 2022 at rates still in the 4s and 5s entered a period of adjustment that would test their patience but, for most, resolve in their favor as the market found its floor and they built equity from what was, in retrospect, still a pre-peak purchase.